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Zmkan Ali Salim
College of Political Science-University of Sulaimani , Kurdistan Region , Iraq
Abstract
Iraqi Kurdistan’’s September 25, 2017 independence referendum put a strain on the relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey, which have, against all odds, formed a strategic alliance that for the last decade served Ankara’s interests in Iraq. This study examines the origin of the alliance between Turkey and the KRG and looks at the recent deterioration in relations between the two. It also assesses the implications of the collapse of the alliance for Turkey’s security, economic, and geostrategic interests in Iraq. The study proposes that inconsistency in Turkey’s policy towards both the Kurdish question in Turkey and the ambitions of the Kurds in Iraq forced the authorities in Ankara to reject Iraqi Kurdistan’s bid for independence endangering the alliance between the Turkish government and the KRG. It argues that Turkey may find it difficult to protect its interests in Iraq if it decides to completely abandon its alliance with the Iraqi Kurds.
الملخص
اجراء استفتاء الاستقلال الذى قام به اقليم كردستان العراق في 25 أيلول / سبتمبر 2017 أثر ضغطا كبيرا على تعقيد وتعليق جزئي في العلاقات بين حكومة الاقليم وتركيا التي توصف بأنهما جهتان متحالفان تحالفا استراتيجيا في العقد الماضي والتي لبت مصالح أنقرة في العراق و الاقليم. تبحث هذه الدراسة في اساس التحالف بين تركيا وحكومة إقليم كردستان، وتفسر اسباب التدهور الأخير في العلاقات بين الجانبين. كما يتم البحث بتقييم انعكاسات احتمال انهيار التحالف الكامل على مصالح تركيا الأمنية والاقتصادية والجيوستراتيجية في العراق و الاقليم. وتجزم الدراسة على أن عدم الاتساق في سياسة تركيا تجاه كل من المسألة الكردية في الداخل التركى و وطموحات الأكراد في العراق أجبر السلطات في أنقرة على رفض محاولة كردستان العراق للاستقلال مما يعرض التحالف بين الحكومة التركية وحكومة إقليم كردستان للخطر. و يبن البحث بأن تركيا قد تجد صعوبة فى حماية مصالحها فى العراق اذا قررت التخلى تماما عن تحالفها مع الاكراد العراقيين.
پوخته:
ئه‌نجامدانی ریفراندۆمی سه‌ربه‌خۆیی له لایه‌ن هه‌رێمی كوردستانی عێراقه‌وه له 25\09\2017 دا كاریگه‌ری نه‌رێنی دروستكرد له‌سه‌ر په‌یوه‌ندییه‌كانی توركیا و حكومه‌تی هه‌رێم. له دوای ساڵی 2007 وه و سه‌رباری ئاسته‌نگ و ناكۆكییه‌كان، توركیا و حكومه‌تی هه‌رێم توانیان هاوپه‌یمانێتیه‌كی ستراتیژی به‌هێز پێكتهێنن كه به شێوه‌یه‌كی به‌رچاو ئه‌م هاوپه‌یمانێتیه خزمه‌تی به‌رژه‌وه‌ندییه‌كانی توركیای ده‌كرد له عێراق و هه‌رێمی كوردستان. ئه‌م توێژینه‌وه له بنه‌ره‌تی هاوپه‌یمانێتی هه‌ولێر و ئه‌نكه‌ره و هه‌روه‌ها خراپبوونی ئه‌م دواییه‌ی په‌یوه‌ندی نێوان ئه‌م دوو هاوپه‌یمانه ده‌كۆڵیته‌وه. هه‌روه‌ها توێژینه‌وه‌كه ئه‌گه‌ری كاریگه‌رییه‌كانی كۆتایی هاتنی ته‌واوی هاوپه‌یمانێتی نێوان هه‌ولێر و ئه‌نكه‌ره له‌سه‌ر به‌رژه‌وه‌ندیه‌كانی توركیا له عێراق هه‌ڵده‌سه‌نگێنێت. توێژینه‌وه‌كه پێداگری له‌وه ده‌كات كه په‌یره‌ونه‌كردنی سیاسه‌تی چونییه‌ك و به‌رده‌وام له لایه‌ن توركیاوه به‌رامبه‌ر به دۆزی كورد له توركیا و هه‌روه‌ها به‌رامبه‌ر به ئامانجه‌كانی كورد له عێراق هۆكاری سه‌ره‌كی بوو كه پاڵی به ئه‌نكه‌ره‌وه نا كه‌وا هه‌نگاوی حكومه‌تی هه‌رێم به‌ره‌و سه‌ربه‌خۆیی ره‌ت بكاته‌وه و به‌رژه‌وه‌ندییه‌كانی توركیا له عێراق بخاته ژێر مه‌ترسیه‌وه. هه‌روه‌ها، توێژینه‌وه‌كه پێشبینی ئه‌وه ده‌كات كه كۆتاییهێنان به هاوپه‌یمانێتی له‌گه‌ڵ هه‌رێمی كوردستان ئاسته‌نگی گه‌وره له‌به‌رده‌م توركیا دروستده‌كات له به‌دیهێنانی ئامانج و به‌رژه‌وه‌ندییه‌كانی له عێراق و هه‌رێمی كوردستان له داهاتوودا.
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